ĐÔNG NAM Á TRONG CHIẾN LƯỢC ẤN ĐỘ DƯƠNG – THÁI BÌNH DƯƠNG CỦA NHẬT BẢN DƯỚI GÓC NHÌN CHỦ NGHĨA TÂN HIỆN THỰC (2007-2024)
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Bài viết góp phần làm rõ vai trò của Đông Nam Á trong chiến lược Ấn Độ Dương - Thái Bình Dương của Nhật Bản thông qua lăng kính chủ nghĩa tân hiện thực. Khái niệm “Ấn Độ Dương - Thái Bình Dương” lần đầu tiên được Nhật Bản giới thiệu vào năm 2007 và sau đó chính thức được công bố thành chiến lược dưới tên gọi “Ấn Độ Dương - Thái Bình Dương tự do và rộng mở” (tiếng Anh: Free and Open Indo-Pacific, viết tắt: FOIP) vào năm 2016. Trong khuôn khổ chiến lược FOIP, mối quan hệ giữa Đông Nam Á và Nhật Bản đang chuyển dịch từ giai đoạn hợp tác để phát triển của chủ nghĩa tự do sang giai đoạn hợp tác phòng thủ vì lợi ích quốc gia của chủ nghĩa tân hiện thực.
Trên cơ sở đó, bài viết nhận định rằng Đông Nam Á là chìa khóa để Nhật Bản hiện thực hóa chiến lược FOIP.
Từ khóa
chiến lược Ấn Độ Dương – Thái Bình Dương, Nhật Bản, chủ nghĩa tân hiện thực, Đông Nam Á
Chi tiết bài viết
Tài liệu tham khảo
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Hoang, K. N. (2013). Chủ nghĩa tự do trong quan hệ quốc tế: Những luận điểm chính và sự đóng góp [Liberalism in international relations: Main points of view and contribution]. VNU Journal of Science: Social Sciences and Humanities, 29(1), 17-26. https://js.vnu.edu.vn/SSH/article/view/1438
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Koga, K. (2019). Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy: Tokyo’s tactical hedging and the implications for ASEAN. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 41(2), 286-313.
Koga, K. (2021). Wedge strategies, Japan-ASEAN cooperation, and the making of EAS: Implications for Indo-Pacific institutionalization. In The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era (pp.73-96). University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11859489
Madan, T. (2017). The rise, fall, and rebirth of the ‘Quad’. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/rise-fall-rebirth-quad/
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Ōba, M. (2018). Indo-Pacific: From Japan’s Perspective. The Journal of International Security, 46(3), 12-32. https://doi.org/10.57292/kokusaianzenhosho.46.3_12
Ōba, M. (2023). Japan and ASEAN: Partners for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific in an era of uncertainty. Nippon. https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a09401/
Qiao-Franco, G., Karmazin, A., & Kolmaš, M. (2024). The Indo-Pacific and the next phase of ASEAN centrality. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 18681034241307658. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034241307658
Satake, T., & Sahashi, R. (2021). The rise of China and Japan’s ‘Vision’ for Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Journal of Contemporary China, 30(127), 18-35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2020.1766907
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Storey, I. (2013). Japan’s maritime security interests in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea dispute. Political Science, 65(2), 135-156. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032318713508482
Tang, S. M. (2018). ASEAN’s tough balancing act. Asia Policy, 13(4), 48-52.
Tomotaka, S. (2021). “Belt and Road” vs. “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”: Competition over Regional Order and ASEAN’s Responses. Security & Strategy, 1, 3-24. https://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/security/pdf/2021/01/04.pdf
Tran, N. T. (2012). Chiến lược” Chuỗi ngọc trai” và mục tiêu trở thành cường quốc biển của Trung Quốc trong thế kỉ XXI [China’s String of Pearls and strategy to become a maritime power in the 21st century]. Chinese Studies, 1(125), 64-80.
Vo, X. V. (2023). Đông Nam Á với Quad nhìn từ Tầm nhìn ASEAN về Ấn Độ Dương-Thái Bình Dương [Southeast Asia and the Quad from the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific]. [In National Scientific Conference of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in the security structure of the Indo-Pacific region] (pp.291-308). Vietnam National University-Ho Chi Minh City Publishing House
von Borzyskowski, I., & Vabulas, F. (2019). Hello, goodbye: When do states withdraw from international organizations? The Review of International Organizations, 14(2), 335-366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09352-2
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural Realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25(1), 5-41.
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Abe, S. (2012). “Security Diamond” begins to shine. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/a-strategic-alliance-for-japan-and-india-by-shinzo-abe
Arugay, A. A., & Galang, M. A. (2024). The Japan-Philippines reciprocal access agreement: complementing and cementing the hub-and-spokes system. ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, 70. https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/ISEAS_Perspective_2024_70.pdf
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ASEAN (2019). Asean outlook on the Indo-Pacific. https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/ASEAN-Outlook-on-the-Indo-Pacific_FINAL_22062019.pdf
Campbell, C., & Salidjanova, N. (2016). South China Sea arbitration ruling: What happened and what’s next? [Issue Brief]. https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/Issue Brief_South China Sea Arbitration Ruling What Happened and What's Next071216.pdf
Ciorciari, John. D. (2021). Japan as the key to Southeast Asian diversification. In The Courteous Power (pp.25-48). University of Michigan Press.
Dao, M. H., & Le, H. H. (2013). Sổ tay Thuật ngữ Quan hệ Quốc tế [Handbook of International Relations Terminology]. National Political Publishing House.
De Castro, R. C. (2022). Under the shadow of the giants: The ASEAN in search of a common strategy in a fluid and perilous Indo-Pacific region. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 7(2), 282-301. https://doi.org/10.1177/20578911211014598
Debre, M. J., & Dijkstra, H. (2023). Are international organisations in decline? An absolute and relative perspective on institutional change. Global Policy, 14(1), 16-30. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13170
Dominguez, G. (2022). Why Japan still leads in Southeast Asian infrastructure investment. The Japan Times. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/06/business/japan-southeast-asia-infrastructure-investment/
Green, M. (2022). Line of advantage: Japan’s grand strategy in the era of Abe Shinzō. Columbia University Press. https://doi.org/10.7312/gree20466
Hillman, J. E. (2018). Game of loans: How China bought hambantota. https://www.csis.org/analysis/game-loans-how-china-bought-hambantota
Hoang, K. N. (2013). Chủ nghĩa tự do trong quan hệ quốc tế: Những luận điểm chính và sự đóng góp [Liberalism in international relations: Main points of view and contribution]. VNU Journal of Science: Social Sciences and Humanities, 29(1), 17-26. https://js.vnu.edu.vn/SSH/article/view/1438
Indo-Pacific, disappeared ‘strategy’ government modified to ‘concept’ (2018). Nikkei. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO37648990S8A111C1PP8000/
Isaac, J. (2023). Indonesia grapples with high costs and debt guarantees in Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail project. Indonesia Business Post. https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/risks-opportunities/indonesia-grapples-with-high-costs-and-debt-guarantees-in-jakarta-bandung-high-speed-rail-project/
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (2019). The state of Southeast Asia: 2019 survey report. https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/TheStateofSEASurveyReport_2019.pdf
Jimbo, K. (2021). Japan’s defense and security cooperation in Southeast Asia: Developing security networks, capacities, and institutions. In The Courteous Power (pp.54-72). University of Michigan Press.
Koga, K. (2019). Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy: Tokyo’s tactical hedging and the implications for ASEAN. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 41(2), 286-313.
Koga, K. (2021). Wedge strategies, Japan-ASEAN cooperation, and the making of EAS: Implications for Indo-Pacific institutionalization. In The Courteous Power: Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era (pp.73-96). University of Michigan Press. https://doi.org/10.3998/mpub.11859489
Madan, T. (2017). The rise, fall, and rebirth of the ‘Quad’. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2017/11/rise-fall-rebirth-quad/
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The tragedy of Great Power politics. Norton Press.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2018). The great delusion: Liberal dreams and international realities. Yale University Press.
Ministry of Defense (MOD) (2016). Japan’s defense capacity building assistance. https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000146830.pdf
MOD. (n.d.). Capacity building assistance. https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/exchange/cap_build
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) (2011). 14th ASEAN-Japan summit (Overview). https://www.mofa.go.jp/announce/jfpu/2011/11/1118-02.html
MOFA (2015). Announcement of “Partnership for quality infrastructure: Investment for Asia’s future”. https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/oda/page18_000076.html
MOFA (2017). Diplomatic Bluebook 2017. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/pp/page22e_000817.html
MOFA (2018). Diplomatic Bluebook 2018. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/pp/page25e_000237.html
MOFA (2019). Diplomatic Bluebook 2019. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/pp/page22e_000929.html
MOFA (2020a). Diplomatic Bluebook 2020. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/pp/page22e_000932.html
MOFA (2020b). Japan-ASEAN Connectivity Initiative. https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/100114591.pdf
MOFA (2021). Diplomatic Bluebook 2021. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/pp/page22e_000932.html
MOFA (2022). Diplomatic Bluebook 2022. https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/other/bluebook/2022/pdf/en_index.html
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MOFA (2023c). New plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/100477660.pdf
MOFA (2023d). Opinion poll on Japan in ASEAN countries 2023. https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/100635560.pdf
MOFA (2023e). Signing and exchange of notes for official security assistance (OSA) to the republic of the Philippines. https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/press4e_003330.html
MOFA. (2023f). Signing and exchange of notes for official security assistance (OSA) FY2024 project to the republic of the Philippines. https://www.mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_00791.html
MOFA (2023g). Signing and exchanging of notes for official security assistance (OSA) to Malaysia. https://www.mofa.go.jp/fp/nsp/pageite_000001_00050.html
MOFA (2024). Diplomatic Bluebook 2024. https://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/other/bluebook/2024/pdf/pdfs/2024_all.pdf
Nguyen, H. S. (2013). ASEAN-Japan strategic partnership in Southeast Asia: Maritime security and cooperation. In ASEAN-Japan Strategic Partnership for Democracy, Peace, and Prosperity in Southeast Asia (pp.214-227). Japan Center for International Exchange (JICE). https://jcie.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ASEAN-Japan-Beyond2015-full-report.pdf
Nguyen, T. T., & Le, T. N. (2022). Vai trò trung tâm của ASEAN trong cạnh tranh quyền lực giữa Trung Quốc và Mĩ ở Đông Nam Á [ASEAN's central role in power competition between China and the US in Southeast Asia]. VNUHCM Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 6(1), 1432-1442. https://doi.org/10.32508/stdjssh.v6i1.702
Ōba, M. (2018). Indo-Pacific: From Japan’s Perspective. The Journal of International Security, 46(3), 12-32. https://doi.org/10.57292/kokusaianzenhosho.46.3_12
Ōba, M. (2023). Japan and ASEAN: Partners for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific in an era of uncertainty. Nippon. https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a09401/
Qiao-Franco, G., Karmazin, A., & Kolmaš, M. (2024). The Indo-Pacific and the next phase of ASEAN centrality. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 18681034241307658. https://doi.org/10.1177/18681034241307658
Satake, T., & Sahashi, R. (2021). The rise of China and Japan’s ‘Vision’ for Free and Open Indo-Pacific. Journal of Contemporary China, 30(127), 18-35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2020.1766907
Savage, R. (2023). China spent $240 billion bailing out “Belt and Road” countries. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/china-spent-240-bln-bailing-out-belt-road-countries-study-2023-03-27/
Storey, I. (2013). Japan’s maritime security interests in Southeast Asia and the South China Sea dispute. Political Science, 65(2), 135-156. https://doi.org/10.1177/0032318713508482
Tang, S. M. (2018). ASEAN’s tough balancing act. Asia Policy, 13(4), 48-52.
Tomotaka, S. (2021). “Belt and Road” vs. “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”: Competition over Regional Order and ASEAN’s Responses. Security & Strategy, 1, 3-24. https://www.nids.mod.go.jp/english/publication/security/pdf/2021/01/04.pdf
Tran, N. T. (2012). Chiến lược” Chuỗi ngọc trai” và mục tiêu trở thành cường quốc biển của Trung Quốc trong thế kỉ XXI [China’s String of Pearls and strategy to become a maritime power in the 21st century]. Chinese Studies, 1(125), 64-80.
Vo, X. V. (2023). Đông Nam Á với Quad nhìn từ Tầm nhìn ASEAN về Ấn Độ Dương-Thái Bình Dương [Southeast Asia and the Quad from the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific]. [In National Scientific Conference of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) in the security structure of the Indo-Pacific region] (pp.291-308). Vietnam National University-Ho Chi Minh City Publishing House
von Borzyskowski, I., & Vabulas, F. (2019). Hello, goodbye: When do states withdraw from international organizations? The Review of International Organizations, 14(2), 335-366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09352-2
Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
Waltz, K. N. (2000). Structural Realism after the Cold War. International Security, 25(1), 5-41.
World Bank. (2020). Unlocking the Potential of Lao-China Rail Connectivity. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/648271591174002567/pdf/Main-Report.pdf