STUDY ON CHARACTERISTICS OF MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN NINH THUAN PROVINCE
Main Article Content
Abstract
The study aims to analyze change characteristics and predict the maximum and minimum temperature in Ninh Thuan in climate change. In this study, the author used non-parametric statistics with Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen. The results show the maximum temperature decreased in May, July, and August from 0.0070C per year to 0.030C per year, increasing in the remaining months with an increasing amplitude from 0.0060C per year to 0.050C. The lowest minimum temperature also showed that February, July, and August are the three months whose temperature decreases from 0.00250C per year to 0.01360C per year, and the remaining months increase from 0.010C to 0.10C per year. In addition, the predicting results of the trend of minimum and maximum temperature that change with the Climate Change scenario are consistent with the low emission scenario (B1) and the RCP 4.5 scenario. The research results have contributed to providing more evidence of the changing trends and predictions in hydrometeorology. This can be beneficial to develop adaptation options and solutions in climate conditions.
Keywords
Climate Change, Mann-Kendall, Non-parametric statistics, Theil-Sen
Article Details
References
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Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), 1379-1389. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891
Silva, R. M., Santos, C. A. G., Moreira, M., Corte-Real, J., Silva, V. C. L., & Medeiros, I. C. (2015). Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin. Natural Hazards, 77(2), 1205-1221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1644-7
Theil, H. (1950). A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis,1,2,3; confidence regions for the parameters of polynomial regression equations. Proceedings KNAW, 53, 386-392, m521-525, 1397-1412.
Toros, H., Abbasnia, M., Sagdic, M., & Tayanç, M. (2017). Long-Term Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Megacity of Istanbul for the Development of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change. Advances in Meteorology, 2017, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6519856
Ullah, S., You, Q., Ali, A., Ullah, W., Jan, M. A., Zhang, Y., Xie, W., & Xie, X. (2019). Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures over China- Pakistan economic corridor during 1980-2016. Atmospheric Research, 216, 37-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.020
Umar, D. A., Ramli, M. F., Aris, A. Z., Jamil, N. R., & Aderemi, A. A. (2019). Evidence of climate variability from rainfall and temperature fluctuations in semi-arid region of the tropics. Atmospheric Research, 224, 52-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.023
Asfaw, A., Simane, B., Hassen, A., & Bantider, A. (2018). Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, 19, 29-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2017.12.002
Atilgan, A., Tanriverd, C., Yucely, A., Oz, H., & Degirmen, H. (2017). Analysis of long-term temperature data using Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression methods: The case of the Southeastern Aanatolia region. Scientific Papers. Series A. Agronomy, LX, 455-462.
Chattopadhyay, S., & Edwards, D. (2016). Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States. Climate, 4(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4010010
Chaudhuri, S., & Dutta, D. (2014). Mann–Kendall trend of pollutants, temperature, and humidity over an urban station of India with forecast verification using different ARIMA models. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 186(8), 4719-4742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-014-3733-6
Güner Bacanli, Ü. (2017). Trend analysis of precipitation and drought in the Aegean region, Turkey: Trend analysis of precipitation and drought. Meteorological Applications, 24(2), 239-249. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1622
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank correlation methods. Griffin.
Khavse, R., Deshmukh, N., Manikandan, N., Chaudhary, J., & Kaushik, D. (2015). Statistical Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Trend in Raipur District of Chhattisgarh. Current World Environment, 10(1), 305-312. https://doi.org/10.12944/CWE.10.1.38
Krishnan, M. V. N., Prasanna, M. V., & Vijith, H. (2018). Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0611-8
Kumar, N., Tischbein, B., & Beg, M. K. (2018). Multiple trend analysis of rainfall and temperature for a monsoon-dominated catchment in India. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-018-0617-2
Livada, I., Synnefa, A., Haddad, S., Paolini, R., Garshasbi, S., Ulpiani, G., Fiorito, F., Vassilakopoulou, K., Osmond, P., & Santamouris, M. (2019). Time series analysis of ambient air-temperature during the period 1970-2016 over Sydney, Australia. Science of The Total Environment, 648, 1627-1638. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.08.144
Mann, H. B. (1945). Non-parametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 13(3), 245-259. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Mavromatis, T., & Stathis, D. (2011). Response of the water balance in Greece to temperature and precipitation trends. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104(1-2), 13-24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0320-9
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. (2008). Chuong trinh muc tieu quoc gia ung pho voi bien doi khi hau [National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change] (60/2007/NQ-CP).
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. (2012). Kich ban bien doi khi hau, nuoc bien dang cho Viet Nam [Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenario for Vietnam]. Hanoi: Viet Nam Publishing House of Natural Resources, Environment and Cartography
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. (2016). Kich ban bien doi khi hau, nuoc bien dang cho Viet Nam [Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenario for Vietnam]. Hanoi: Viet Nam Publishing House of Natural Resources, Environment and Cartography
Mullick, Md. R. A., Nur, R. M., Alam, Md. J., & Islam, K. M. A. (2019). Observed trends in temperature and rainfall in Bangladesh using pre-whitening approach. Global and Planetary Change, 172, 104-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.10.001
Ngo, D. T., & Ngo, L.A. (2016). Nghien cuu cac yeu to gay han han, chi tieu, phan cap han o tinh Ninh Thuan – Binh Thuan va giai phap phong, chong, giam thieu Research on drought factors, criteria, classification in Ninh Thuan – Binh Thuan provinces and their prevention and mitigation measures]. Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 30,
132-137.
Ngo, D. T., & Phan, V. T. (2012). Kiem nghiem phi tham so xu the bien doi mot so yeu to khi tuong cho giai doan 1961-2007 [non-parametric test for trend detection of some meteorological elements for the period 1961-2007]. VNU Journal of Science: Natural Sciences and Technology (JS: NST), XX, 1-8.
Nguyen, D. T., Bao, V. T., & Nguyen, K. P. (2012). Tac dong cua bien doi khi hau den linh vuc nong nghiep o Ninh Thuan va giai phap tuong ung [Impact of climate change on the agricultural sector in Ninh Thuan and corresponding solutions]. Natural Resources and Environmental magazine, 23, 23-26.
Nguyen, H. T. (2008). Ung dung cac bien phap truyen thong va khoa hoc ky thuat moi nham khai thac, bao ve tai nguyen dat va nuoc, gop phan phong chong han o xa Phuoc Nam tinh Ninh Thuan [Applying traditional methods and new engineering science to exploit and protect land and water resources, contributing to drought prevention in Phuoc Nam, Ninh Thuan province]. Vietnam Journal of Hydrometeorology, 45-50.
Nguyen, M. K. (2016). Phan tich va danh gia luong mua trong xu huong Bien doi khi hau giai doan 1979-2011 o thanh pho Da Nang [An assessment and analysis of precipitation in climate change trend for the period 1979-2011 in Da Nang City]. AGU Journal of Sciences – Natural Sciences, Technology and Environment, 12(4), 110-117.
Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), 1379-1389. JSTOR. https://doi.org/10.2307/2285891
Silva, R. M., Santos, C. A. G., Moreira, M., Corte-Real, J., Silva, V. C. L., & Medeiros, I. C. (2015). Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin. Natural Hazards, 77(2), 1205-1221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1644-7
Theil, H. (1950). A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis,1,2,3; confidence regions for the parameters of polynomial regression equations. Proceedings KNAW, 53, 386-392, m521-525, 1397-1412.
Toros, H., Abbasnia, M., Sagdic, M., & Tayanç, M. (2017). Long-Term Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Megacity of Istanbul for the Development of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change. Advances in Meteorology, 2017, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6519856
Ullah, S., You, Q., Ali, A., Ullah, W., Jan, M. A., Zhang, Y., Xie, W., & Xie, X. (2019). Observed changes in maximum and minimum temperatures over China- Pakistan economic corridor during 1980-2016. Atmospheric Research, 216, 37-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2018.09.020
Umar, D. A., Ramli, M. F., Aris, A. Z., Jamil, N. R., & Aderemi, A. A. (2019). Evidence of climate variability from rainfall and temperature fluctuations in semi-arid region of the tropics. Atmospheric Research, 224, 52-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.03.023